MEXC Both Ways PAPER · FORWARD ONLY · A/B

Two straddle books on the same spikes at the same instants, differing only in exit geometry — so the period cancels and the comparison is paired. Scored by PAIR, never by leg. $10,000 each, forward-only from 2026-08-09 18:00Z, charging real commission, measured slippage and funding.

BOTHWAYS 4.0 / 0.50

deployed geometry · predicted +$62/pair
$11,922.04
+19.22% · 34 closed · 0 open
Pairs below zero0 / 34
Residual rate29% (10 pairs)
Net / pair$56.53
Cost / pair$18.32 = 0.058R friction
Per $ exposure+70.6 bps
Mean per-pair+167.1 bps unweighted

BOTHWAYS TIGHT 2.5 / 0.10

matched-exposure winner · predicted +$250/pair
$12,305.37
+23.05% · 34 closed · 0 open
Pairs below zero0 / 34
Residual rate62% (21 pairs)
Net / pair$67.80
Cost / pair$25.04 = 0.085R friction
Per $ exposure+61.5 bps
Mean per-pair+118.3 bps unweighted

BOTHWAYS ALL 2.5 / 0.10

ALL ASSETS — 20x volume gate vs 100x · no in-sample prediction — forward measurement
$35,198.21
+251.98% · 415 closed · 5 open
Pairs below zero0 / 415
Residual rate64% (265 pairs)
Net / pair$60.72
Cost / pair$109.04 = 0.145R friction
Per $ exposure+15.6 bps
Mean per-pair+43.8 bps unweighted

A/B verdict — 34 spikes closed by both books

BASELINE ahead by 48.8 bps per $ of exposure ($11.27/pair as traded)
paired t on the exposure-neutral delta: -0.63 · tight better on 14, baseline on 20, identical 0. Both books trade the SAME spikes at the SAME instants, so this difference is caused by exit geometry alone. In-sample prediction under test: +$188/pair favouring TIGHT.

BOTHWAYS 4.0 / 0.50

value
Gross P&L$2,545.06
Costs charged−$623.00
Net P&L$1,922.07
Best pair$585.78
Worst pair$-133.77
Open P&L (marked)$0.00
Peak equity$12,280.89
Pair-sum distribution — expect a large stack at +0.00 (loser −1R, winner +1R) and a thin tail above it. That tail is the entire strategy.
pair Rcountshare
+0.00 R2471%
+0.50 R618%
+1.00 R39%
+2.00 R13%

BOTHWAYS TIGHT 2.5 / 0.10

value
Gross P&L$3,156.80
Costs charged−$851.45
Net P&L$2,305.36
Best pair$737.56
Worst pair$-92.92
Open P&L (marked)$0.00
Peak equity$12,530.92
Pair-sum distribution — expect a large stack at +0.00 (loser −1R, winner +1R) and a thin tail above it. That tail is the entire strategy.
pair Rcountshare
+0.00 R1338%
+0.10 R618%
+0.20 R412%
+0.30 R39%
+0.50 R39%
+0.80 R26%
+0.90 R13%
+1.00 R13%
+2.60 R13%

BOTHWAYS ALL 2.5 / 0.10

value
Gross P&L$70,448.00
Costs charged−$45,249.72
Net P&L$25,198.15
Best pair$1,568.92
Worst pair$-847.31
Open P&L (marked)$0.00
Peak equity$36,698.34
Pair-sum distribution — expect a large stack at +0.00 (loser −1R, winner +1R) and a thin tail above it. That tail is the entire strategy.
pair Rcountshare
+0.00 R15036%
+0.10 R9723%
+0.20 R5112%
+0.30 R236%
+0.40 R205%
+0.50 R154%
+0.60 R123%
+0.70 R113%
+0.80 R92%
+0.90 R61%
+1.00 R72%
+1.10 R20%
+1.20 R20%
+1.30 R20%
+1.40 R10%
+1.50 R10%
+1.70 R20%
+1.80 R10%
+2.00 R10%
+2.60 R10%
+3.10 R10%

Open pairs — live marks

bookopenedsymbolrvolrisk/leg LONG RSHORT RPAIR Rmark $
ALL09-18 19:30ZEN_USDT22x$1,430-0.32+0.32+0.00$0.00
ALL09-18 17:15TRX_USDT32x$190-0.06+0.06+0.00$0.00
ALL09-18 16:15W_USDT32x$1,368-0.67+0.67+0.00$0.00
ALL09-16 23:30HNT_USDT30x$1,358-0.11+0.11+0.00$0.00
ALL09-16 01:45AIN_USDT24x$1,140-0.34+0.34+0.00$0.00
Both legs are open simultaneously. One will finish at −1R; the pair pays only if the other clears +1R.

Closed pairs — every pair, both books

bookentrysymbolLONG Rexit SHORT RexitPAIR Rgross $costnet $bps
BASE09-13 22:15SEI_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$49.99$-49.99-13.9
BASE09-03 09:00CAP_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$4.93$-4.93-10.4
BASE09-01 12:15TRX_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$17.38$-17.38-4.8
BASE08-31 16:30GRAM_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$16.87$-16.87-11.4
BASE08-31 11:000G_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$6.53$-6.53-12.1
BASE08-29 10:00HNT_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$5.88$-5.88-18.9
BASE08-25 14:15GPS_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$22.04$-22.04-19.2
BASE08-24 17:30VELVET_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$4.17$-4.17-18.4
BASE08-24 13:30VELVET_USDT-0.22timeout+0.22timeout+0.00$0.00−$0.48$-0.48-15.0
BASE08-24 11:30VELVET_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$1.14$-1.14-11.8
BASE08-24 09:30VELVET_USDT-1.00stop+1.50ratchet_stop+0.50$178.28−$11.88$166.39+391.5
BASE08-21 00:00ONG_USDT+1.50ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.50$175.67−$2.18$173.50+799.5
BASE08-14 20:00WLFI_USDT-1.00stop+1.50ratchet_stop+0.50$173.27−$10.73$162.55+87.6
BASE08-13 11:15ATOM_USDT+1.50ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.50$172.25−$71.04$101.21+34.6
BASE08-12 18:152Z_USDT-1.00stop+1.50ratchet_stop+0.50$163.30−$8.82$154.47+255.2
BASE08-12 17:15COTI_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$29.53$-29.53-59.6
BASE08-12 11:00BR_USDT+0.35timeout-0.35timeout+0.00$0.00−$2.57$-2.57-11.2
BASE08-12 09:00APR_USDT+2.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+1.00$329.24−$18.70$310.54+1,253.0
BASE08-12 09:00BR_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$53.66$-53.66-105.1
BASE08-12 07:45STORJ_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$4.78$-4.78-12.7
BASE08-12 07:00APR_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$4.92$-4.92-15.1
BASE08-12 02:45TRB_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$16.40$-16.40-11.6
BASE08-12 01:00ONE_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$11.67$-11.67-46.5
BASE08-11 21:15LSK_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$13.07$-13.07-24.4
BASE08-11 20:30HOLO_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$12.05$-12.05-17.8
BASE08-11 14:45VELVET_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$1.99$-1.99-11.3
BASE08-11 12:30INX_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$19.30$-19.30-26.0
BASE08-11 12:15VELVET_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$1.40$-1.40-10.6
BASE08-11 11:15MITO_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$11.37$-11.37-26.0
BASE08-11 10:00VELVET_USDT+2.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+1.00$305.69−$10.98$294.71+697.7
BASE08-11 09:00ICX_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$133.77$-133.77-121.2
BASE08-11 09:00MOVR_USDT-1.00stop+2.00ratchet_stop+1.00$297.57−$26.95$270.63+261.1
BASE08-11 02:30PROM_USDT+1.50ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.50$149.79−$1.61$148.18+1,218.4
BASE08-11 00:30PROM_USDT-1.00stop+3.00ratchet_stop+2.00$600.00−$14.22$585.78+1,318.1
TIGHT09-13 22:15SEI_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$19.82−$52.94$-33.11-8.9
TIGHT09-03 09:00CAP_USDT-1.00stop+2.00ratchet_stop+1.00$359.66−$9.78$349.88+462.1
TIGHT09-01 12:15TRX_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$17.93$-17.92-5.0
TIGHT08-31 16:30GRAM_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$26.54$-26.54-11.2
TIGHT08-31 11:000G_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$36.04−$13.93$22.11+25.6
TIGHT08-29 10:00HNT_USDT+1.50ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.50$177.80−$19.39$158.41+322.0
TIGHT08-25 14:15GPS_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$51.64$-51.64-28.5
TIGHT08-24 17:30VELVET_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$7.24$-7.24-20.1
TIGHT08-24 13:30VELVET_USDT-0.36timeout+0.36timeout+0.00$0.00−$0.75$-0.75-15.0
TIGHT08-24 11:30VELVET_USDT-1.00stop+1.30ratchet_stop+0.30$106.28−$3.09$103.19+684.9
TIGHT08-24 09:30VELVET_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$35.39−$22.94$12.45+18.4
TIGHT08-21 00:00ONG_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$35.30−$3.98$31.31+89.8
TIGHT08-14 20:00WLFI_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$62.45−$24.55$37.91+14.2
TIGHT08-13 11:15ATOM_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$83.10$-83.10-25.3
TIGHT08-12 18:152Z_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$13.61$-13.61-18.0
TIGHT08-12 17:15COTI_USDT-1.00stop+1.50ratchet_stop+0.50$127.37−$26.02$101.35+163.8
TIGHT08-12 11:00BR_USDT+1.30ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.30$91.71−$18.30$73.41+214.6
TIGHT08-12 09:00APR_USDT+1.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.20$67.67−$24.65$43.02+105.6
TIGHT08-12 09:00BR_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$92.92$-92.92-110.7
TIGHT08-12 07:45STORJ_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$65.94−$9.32$56.62+93.5
TIGHT08-12 07:00APR_USDT+1.90ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.90$296.73−$7.87$288.85+554.2
TIGHT08-12 02:45TRB_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$66.26−$64.17$2.09+0.9
TIGHT08-12 01:00ONE_USDT-1.00stop+1.80ratchet_stop+0.80$259.29−$19.20$240.10+581.3
TIGHT08-11 21:15LSK_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$22.61$-22.61-26.1
TIGHT08-11 20:30HOLO_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$19.99$-19.99-18.2
TIGHT08-11 14:45VELVET_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$3.32$-3.32-12.0
TIGHT08-11 12:30INX_USDT+1.80ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.80$256.74−$32.50$224.24+179.4
TIGHT08-11 12:15VELVET_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$2.61$-2.61-11.7
TIGHT08-11 11:15MITO_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$19.16$-19.16-26.0
TIGHT08-11 10:00VELVET_USDT+1.50ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.50$161.03−$18.51$142.51+200.2
TIGHT08-11 09:00ICX_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$30.04−$46.34$-16.30-9.2
TIGHT08-11 09:00MOVR_USDT-1.00stop+3.60ratchet_stop+2.60$781.08−$43.52$737.56+440.6
TIGHT08-11 02:30PROM_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$30.20−$6.28$23.92+122.0
TIGHT08-11 00:30PROM_USDT-1.00stop+1.30ratchet_stop+0.30$90.00−$22.75$67.25+94.6
ALL09-18 19:00STRK_USDT+1.30ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.30$429.13−$144.83$284.30+65.0
ALL09-18 19:00ZKSYNC_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$847.31$-847.31-91.6
ALL09-18 18:00AKE_USDT-1.00stop+1.40ratchet_stop+0.40$563.72−$34.91$528.81+217.2
ALL09-18 17:00SAGA_USDT-1.00stop+1.30ratchet_stop+0.30$409.54−$42.98$366.56+122.3
ALL09-18 16:00XMR_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$273.60−$344.76$-71.16-8.8
ALL09-18 10:15EIGEN_USDT+1.70ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.70$957.60−$220.47$737.12+63.5
ALL09-17 19:15COTI_USDT+1.60ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.60$807.47−$251.96$555.50+108.8
ALL09-17 16:00GALA_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$134.98−$236.81$-101.83-9.6
ALL09-17 14:00BCH_USDT+1.70ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.70$926.04−$252.79$673.25+54.3
ALL09-17 09:15CAKE_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$608.62$-608.62-45.3
ALL09-17 09:00BCH_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$136.41−$282.98$-146.57-10.9
ALL09-16 23:15RENDER_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$256.10$-256.10-18.9
ALL09-16 18:00CRV_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$136.94−$326.14$-189.20-15.6
ALL09-16 17:45COTI_USDT+1.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.20$260.02−$338.92$-78.91-12.2
ALL09-16 16:00REZ_USDT-1.00stop+1.40ratchet_stop+0.40$523.36−$188.79$334.57+63.1
ALL09-16 15:30BULLA_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$130.84−$34.87$95.97+104.4
ALL09-16 09:30SKYAI_USDT-1.00stop+2.70ratchet_stop+1.70$2,131.74−$562.82$1,568.92+252.7
ALL09-16 08:45SYN_USDT+1.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.20$250.79−$10.34$240.46+248.2
ALL09-16 06:45SYN_USDT+2.30ratchet_stop-1.00stop+1.30$1,553.50−$51.89$1,501.61+912.2
ALL09-15 18:45ASTER_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$106.07$-106.07-11.5
ALL09-15 18:45FARTCOIN_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$113.94$-113.94-21.6
ALL09-15 18:45JUP_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$204.54−$170.26$34.28+5.0
ALL09-15 18:45POL_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$220.75$-220.75-22.1
ALL09-15 18:30GALA_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$121.28−$180.40$-59.12-6.6
ALL09-15 18:30SAND_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$242.56−$231.52$11.04+1.2
ALL09-15 18:30SEI_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$208.28$-208.28-18.4
ALL09-15 18:30STRK_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$271.72$-271.72-31.5
ALL09-15 18:30TRUMPOFFICIAL_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$121.28−$149.96$-28.68-3.6
ALL09-15 17:30SAGA_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$231.32−$39.80$191.52+66.1
ALL09-15 14:45BCH_USDT+1.30ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.30$363.69−$350.70$12.98+1.1
ALL09-15 14:45GRAM_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$74.45−$176.38$-101.93-8.4
ALL09-15 12:45AKE_USDT-1.00stop+2.00ratchet_stop+1.00$1,212.30−$20.68$1,191.62+731.9
ALL09-14 16:15HEMI_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$160.23$-160.23-44.3
ALL09-14 08:45B_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$122.36−$442.70$-320.33-48.4
ALL09-13 22:15SEI_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$66.67−$255.83$-189.16-15.2
ALL09-13 22:00ETC_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$105.20$-105.21-8.4
ALL09-13 22:00RENDER_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$235.43$-235.43-18.9
ALL09-13 18:30FILECOIN_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$28.26$-28.26-7.4
ALL09-13 17:00AR_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$248.97−$79.72$169.24+25.7
ALL09-13 14:30FILECOIN_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$59.76$-59.76-9.0
ALL09-13 12:45BTW_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$124.72−$15.47$109.25+96.2
ALL09-13 08:30SEI_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$254.69$-254.69-20.3
ALL09-13 01:30SAGA_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$124.40−$139.52$-15.12-3.9
ALL09-12 13:00UAI_USDT-1.00stop+1.30ratchet_stop+0.30$373.20−$22.91$350.29+282.7
ALL09-12 02:30RAVE_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$126.21−$162.58$-36.37-8.8
ALL09-12 02:00ALLO_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$415.54$-415.54-48.2
ALL09-11 22:30CYS_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$259.77$-259.77-58.4
ALL09-11 18:00STORJ_USDT+1.60ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.60$710.23−$137.45$572.78+272.8
ALL09-11 15:45RIVER_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$123.72−$140.73$-17.00-3.7
ALL09-11 13:45SHIB_USDT-1.00stop+1.40ratchet_stop+0.40$493.97−$169.35$324.62+34.8
ALL09-11 12:30JASMY_USDT+1.50ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.50$552.80−$494.86$57.94+6.0
ALL09-11 11:00LAB_USDT-1.00stop+1.30ratchet_stop+0.30$355.52−$113.58$241.94+92.5
ALL09-11 11:00XPL_USDT+1.70ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.70$829.56−$146.88$682.67+82.3
ALL09-11 10:15WLFI_USDT+1.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.20$235.65−$47.66$187.99+32.6
ALL09-11 05:00AKE_USDT-1.00stop+1.50ratchet_stop+0.50$575.78−$22.37$553.40+350.5
ALL09-10 21:15SAGA_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$29.13$-29.13-13.3
ALL09-10 17:45EIGEN_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$91.74$-91.74-14.6
ALL09-10 14:30ETHFI_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$233.35−$62.58$170.77+44.6
ALL09-10 12:45BCH_USDT-1.00stop+1.80ratchet_stop+0.80$805.17−$263.86$541.32+47.3
ALL09-10 11:45VTHO_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$110.39$-110.39-71.2
ALL09-09 22:00ACE_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$110.54−$149.90$-39.36-9.1
ALL09-09 22:00ALLO_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$110.54−$306.30$-195.76-27.6
ALL09-09 22:00BEAT_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$62.54$-62.54-33.7
ALL09-09 22:00BICO_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$110.54−$140.45$-29.91-6.5
ALL09-09 22:00BTR_USDT+2.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+1.20$1,326.47−$66.19$1,260.28+563.5
ALL09-09 22:00LAB_USDT+1.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.20$221.08−$67.77$153.31+89.1
ALL09-09 22:00RIVER_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$221.08−$87.41$133.67+39.7
ALL09-09 22:00TUT_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$53.04$-53.04-22.0
ALL09-09 22:00VIRTUAL_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$116.41$-116.41-15.6
ALL09-09 16:45STRK_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$110.53−$107.85$2.68+0.6
ALL09-09 12:30BULLA_USDT+2.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+1.00$749.18−$24.36$724.82+703.5
ALL09-09 11:30NIULAI_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$31.46$-31.46-22.2
ALL09-09 09:45ENS_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$311.62$-311.62-33.4
ALL09-09 09:45SPX_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$110.07−$373.35$-263.28-24.9
ALL09-08 14:15VVV_USDT+1.50ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.50$546.04−$71.05$474.99+129.1
ALL09-08 14:00CATI_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$170.99$-170.99-48.0
ALL09-08 12:30ATOM_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$112.53−$212.61$-100.08-9.6
ALL09-08 10:45FONE_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$112.53−$844.07$-731.54-605.7
ALL09-08 07:00XAN_USDT-0.44timeout+0.44timeout+0.00$0.00−$27.58$-27.58-27.5
ALL09-08 03:15CP_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$113.01−$232.49$-119.48-67.4
ALL09-07 21:30AERO_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$88.66$-88.66-21.4
ALL09-07 20:00VVV_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$279.12$-279.12-30.4
ALL09-07 15:45GRAM_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$186.73$-186.73-16.2
ALL09-07 11:00LUNC_USDT+2.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+1.00$1,158.35−$1,274.15$-115.80-11.0
ALL09-07 07:30MEMEROBINHOOD_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$643.51$-643.51-495.6
ALL09-07 05:15HEMI_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$47.81$-47.81-24.7
ALL09-06 20:15BONER_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$697.96$-697.96-659.2
ALL09-06 15:30KAS_USDT+1.50ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.50$533.91−$643.10$-109.19-8.9
ALL09-06 12:30RAY_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$122.93−$63.61$59.32+17.5
ALL09-06 11:45SPX_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$122.93−$300.38$-177.45-20.2
ALL09-06 11:30JUP_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$245.86−$106.75$139.10+29.2
ALL09-06 07:00GRT_USDT-1.00stop+1.30ratchet_stop+0.30$366.59−$183.51$183.08+31.3
ALL09-06 07:00VELVET_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$343.69$-343.69-59.8
ALL09-05 21:30MONAD_USDT-1.00stop+2.00ratchet_stop+1.00$1,188.98−$491.21$697.77+71.0
ALL09-05 18:00DOGE_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$118.90−$47.08$71.82+9.1
ALL09-05 16:30JUP_USDT+1.40ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.40$447.49−$392.59$54.90+4.6
ALL09-05 12:30B_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$76.07$-76.07-25.1
ALL09-05 11:45JUP_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$342.76$-342.76-28.5
ALL09-05 08:45NIULAI_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$116.98−$55.54$61.44+28.6
ALL09-05 08:15BNB_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$75.19−$126.21$-51.02-4.4
ALL09-04 22:15GRAM_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$188.25−$197.73$-9.47-0.8
ALL09-04 19:30NEAR_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$71.04$-71.04-11.2
ALL09-04 16:454_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$118.61−$333.63$-215.02-84.8
ALL09-04 12:30ASTER_USDT+1.40ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.40$464.95−$84.99$379.96+50.0
ALL09-04 12:30ATOM_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$170.66−$237.16$-66.50-5.7
ALL09-04 12:30AVAX_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$83.72$-83.73-7.2
ALL09-04 12:30ETC_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$92.65−$98.24$-5.58-0.5
ALL09-04 12:30GALA_USDT+1.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.20$232.48−$207.23$25.24+2.5
ALL09-04 12:30ICP_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$135.51$-135.51-18.1
ALL09-04 12:30JTO_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$116.24−$161.25$-45.02-5.8
ALL09-04 12:30KAITO_USDT+1.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.20$162.77−$210.14$-47.37-4.1
ALL09-04 12:30LTC_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$140.31$-140.31-12.1
ALL09-04 12:30PENGU_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$128.53$-128.53-18.4
ALL09-04 12:30RENDER_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$218.16$-218.16-18.8
ALL09-04 12:30RIVER_USDT+1.50ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.50$581.19−$196.93$384.26+65.0
ALL09-04 12:30ROSE_USDT+1.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.20$232.48−$778.63$-546.15-55.4
ALL09-04 12:30SAND_USDT+1.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.20$170.14−$299.53$-129.39-11.1
ALL09-04 12:30SEI_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$235.44$-235.44-20.3
ALL09-04 12:30SHIB_USDT+1.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.20$184.03−$201.14$-17.12-1.5
ALL09-04 10:15MARSCOIN_USDT+1.20ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.20$231.95−$117.61$114.33+77.7
ALL09-04 10:15TRIA_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$115.97−$43.59$72.39+44.3
ALL09-04 09:45FLOKI_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$121.34−$258.14$-136.80-14.3
ALL09-04 09:00ALLO_USDT+1.50ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.50$378.78−$671.04$-292.27-23.9
ALL09-04 08:00TRIA_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$50.59$-50.59-24.6
ALL09-04 07:00CP_USDT+1.40ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.40$484.15−$115.63$368.53+174.5
ALL09-04 06:30VELVET_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$121.04−$116.35$4.69+1.6
ALL09-04 05:30TRIA_USDT+1.50ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.50$594.74−$72.34$522.41+239.1
ALL09-04 02:45TRIA_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$120.21−$436.72$-316.51-59.4
ALL09-03 20:00HNT_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$122.62−$110.80$11.82+5.2
ALL09-03 19:45APR_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$45.15$-45.15-26.6
ALL09-03 17:15JTO_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$134.76$-134.76-18.8
ALL09-03 16:30GPS_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$118.89−$62.21$56.68+15.2
ALL09-03 15:45ZEN_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$272.02$-272.02-35.1
ALL09-03 15:30DASH_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$123.95−$136.61$-12.66-1.7
ALL09-03 15:30DOGE_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$60.85$-60.85-5.6
ALL09-03 14:45BNB_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$63.80−$120.23$-56.43-4.5
ALL09-03 13:00ONG_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$124.48−$258.14$-133.66-23.6
ALL09-03 11:00FF_USDT+1.70ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.70$851.92−$71.71$780.21+364.6
ALL09-03 10:15GPS_USDT+1.80ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.80$973.62−$278.26$695.36+126.5
ALL09-03 09:00CAP_USDT-1.00stop+2.00ratchet_stop+1.00$1,122.26−$40.83$1,081.43+457.7
ALL09-03 08:45CAKE_USDT+1.00ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.00$0.00−$363.61$-363.61-37.0
ALL09-03 06:45FF_USDT+2.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+1.10$1,234.04−$138.50$1,095.54+331.2
ALL09-03 06:00CAP_USDT-1.00stop+1.20ratchet_stop+0.20$224.37−$32.10$192.27+98.3
ALL09-03 04:45AR_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$69.09$-69.09-12.2
ALL09-03 03:30CAP_USDT+1.40ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.40$443.45−$43.48$399.97+165.7
ALL09-03 03:15EDGE_USDT+1.10ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.10$110.86−$100.84$10.03+3.2
ALL09-02 22:15AKE_USDT-0.08timeout+0.08timeout+0.00$0.00−$2.44$-2.44-8.2
ALL09-02 21:30BTW_USDT-1.00stop+1.00ratchet_stop+0.00$0.00−$17.92$-17.92-17.2
ALL09-02 19:45XMR_USDT-1.00stop+1.10ratchet_stop+0.10$110.29−$200.98$-90.68-15.1
ALL09-02 18:15AKE_USDT+1.40ratchet_stop-1.00stop+0.40$441.17−$54.61$386.56+316.6

Costs — what real money pays

bookpairsgross $commissionslippage fundingtotal costnet $
BOTHWAYS34$2,545.06$111.50$498.82$12.69$623.00$1,922.07
BOTHWAYS TIGHT34$3,156.80$155.28$695.97$0.21$851.45$2,305.36
BOTHWAYS ALL415$70,448.00$6,451.63$38,829.79$-31.81$45,249.72$25,198.15
Commission 13.17 bps round-trip on notional, charged on both legs. Slippage is measured, not assumed — per symbol and per size from the live depth probe (median 0.110% of price at $1,500, rising to 0.383% at $15,000). Funding is the real settlement over the hold.

The straddle is funding-neutral by construction — the legs are equal and opposite, so one pays exactly what the other receives. The directional FADE book pays 0.0171 R/trade in funding; this one pays ~nothing. That is a genuine structural advantage.
⚠ Every pair pays four fills (two in, two out). A pair that grosses exactly $0 — which is ~90% of them — still loses the cost. That is the whole problem this experiment is testing.

Method & kill criteria

What this is. Every spike gets a LONG and a SHORT at identical size. Stops sit at ±1R and the ratchet triggers at +1R, so the moment one leg's stop is touched the other has already locked ≥+1R. A pair can never net below zero — verified 0 negative pairs of 62 across {15m, 1m} × {optimistic, pessimistic} replay, plus 76 live and 20 backfilled pairs.

Where the money comes from. Nothing, unless the winner exits above +1R. Historically only 5.3% of legs ever do. So the experiment is really one question: how often does that happen, and is it enough to pay four fills on every pair?

The two numbers that decide it.
1. Pairs below zero — must stay 0. Structural, not statistical. Non-zero means the premise is broken, not that we were unlucky. ⚠ It breaks below STOP_ATR 2.5 (1 of 69 at 2.0), because one 15m bar can take out both legs before either locks.
2. Residual rate. Historically 15% in the first half and 5% in the second — and that second half lost money with perfect fills. ≥10% over ~60 pairs ⇒ real (then spend ~$200 on live orders to measure real fills — do not fund on paper). ~5% ⇒ dead.

Why bps and not dollars. Both books size to the same risk, so TIGHT carries ~1.6× the notional — its commission runs exactly 1.60× BASE's, which is the proof. Dollars therefore contain a leverage difference. Judge the config on bps; judge a deployment on dollars.

Known limits. Paper fills are perfect, so this page can never measure real slippage on the exit stops — only live orders can. Forward-only from 2026-08-09 18:00Z; an earlier backfill was discarded because it replayed old spikes under today's ratchet while the live books had closed them under a buggy one.
Paper only — keyless, no orders, real-money bot untouched. Generated 2026-09-19 04:36:43Z · refreshes every 2 min.